According to the minutes of the July FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, several Fed officials strongly favored implementing a rate cut at the September policy meeting last month, and several of them even believed that a rate cut could be implemented in July. The minutes show that at the July meeting, the vast majority of officials believed that if the data to be released next met expectations, a rate cut at the next meeting should be a reasonable measure.

In addition, Federal Reserve officials have also stated that recent data has strengthened their confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2%. Almost all attendees have noted that the factors that have led to the recent decline in inflation may continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

Harris Financial Group analyst Jamie Cox believes that the minutes of the July meeting have completely dispelled doubts about whether there will really be a rate cut in September. He added that the purpose of the Fed's external communication is to minimize market volatility caused by FOMC meetings, so he believes officials will fully follow the script.

On the other hand, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment correction data last night. The revised data shows that in the year ending in March this year, the non farm payroll (NFP) in the United States was 818000 fewer than previously estimated. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach pointed out that a significant decline in non farm payrolls could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by two yards in September.

According to data from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, as of 6:27 am Taipei time on the 22nd, federal fund futures investors predict that the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by one yard to 5.00-5.25% on September 18th is about 65.5%, while the probability of cutting interest rates by two yards to 4.75-5.00% has risen to 34.5%. In other words, the probability of a one or two yard rate cut predicted by traders in September has reached 100%.